Dragons v Storm Round 2

[Mug Fan]

Well that maybe George, but the ref is not obliged to. The Ref for our game against the Storm this Saturday evening is the one and only Gerard Sutton. Now, I don't go for him that much and here is why -

"Based on records up to early 2025, the St George Illawarra Dragons have a poor record with Gerard Sutton as referee, winning 14 games, drawing 1, and losing 26 to 28 games (records vary slightly between 14-1-26 and 14-1-28). This gives them a win percentage of roughly 33–35% in his matches, which is notably low.

• Total Wins: 14
• Total Losses: 26–28
• Total Draws: 1
• Win Rate: Approximately 33.7% - 35.4%

This data covers his career refereeing the team between 2009 and 2025."

Enough said.

Stats stats and more BS stats
Geared Surton 33%
Chris Sutton 32%
Chris James 33%
Adam Gee 32%

All over 15 games, maybe it's not the ref maybe it us.

 

[Dragon David]

Stats stats and more BS stats
Geared Surton 33%
Chris Sutton 32%
Chris James 33%
Adam Gee 32%

All over 15 games, maybe it's not the ref maybe it us.

You hit the nail on the head Mug Fan.

 

[jodragon40]

Stats stats and more BS stats
Geared Surton 33%
Chris Sutton 32%
Chris James 33%
Adam Gee 32%

All over 15 games, maybe it's not the ref maybe it us.

Us

 

[Illusion]

Defensively, I think that we can match it with the Storm, its the lack of true attacking weapons that I am afraid to say could let us down. If they score 4 tries (which I feel will be more), with us defending the way we have, are we capable of scoring 5 tries and converting them to win by 6? Meaney has a good conversion rate while Holmes has tended to miss quite a few unfortunately and this could prove the difference.

David wether it's injury or just getting older , for me Holmes has been poor not a match winner like he was ...... Anyway just my 2 bobs worth .......

 

[Dragon David]

David wether it's injury or just getting older , for me Holmes has been poor not a match winner like he was ...... Anyway just my 2 bobs worth .......

While Flanno did have the guts to get Gutho, Cook and Holmes for us, I thought that he might have done the right thing at the time and before a ball was kicked in 2025, I was very excited to see how they were going to perform. The grading I would give all three for 2025 is between 6-7 out of 10. I now have this feeling that while they still have plenty to give and show, I'm not sure if that is sufficient to get us more wins which is what we desperately have been after. More wins. Those three are not real world beaters in this day and with age now against them, they are now showing signs of slowing down more (Cook has been good so far this year, Gutho as well, but Holmes doesn't appear to be fully fit and his past injuries have hit him mentally in my view) and in the case of Holmes, more susceptible to injuries.

However, in saying all of this, these three guys are helping the younger ones along their journey in the NRL which will benefit us in the end.

 

[Mailroomsgi]

Holmes when on the field has been great (goalkicking meh)

Cooks been ok

Gutherson I wasn’t really on board with and said at the time I wouldn’t have given him 3 years considering the toll it takes on the body + how he looked in the final season at parra

I’m almost certain he won’t be fullback in ‘27 whether that’s him getting shifted to another position or him moving on to super league etc.

The real interest for me is who we retain, couchmans and Su’a keep at all costs and everyone else is a wait and see. Particularly the Loko situation

 

[RandomDragon]

The 6 man bench is interesting, have been thinking recently, having lawrie on there is actually a no brainer. He is shit, wont be re-signed, and so if he sits there for 5 games with no minutes, who cares, we dont need to develop him anyway. They should apply the same logic to the 3rd half - have o'neill in there who if required can jump on and be ok, but if not required, who gives a shit, we know hes not in the plans for next year anyway. It now makes the shitter older players more valuable.

 

[Ryan]

While Flanno did have the guts to get Gutho, Cook and Holmes for us, I thought that he might have done the right thing at the time and before a ball was kicked in 2025, I was very excited to see how they were going to perform. The grading I would give all three for 2025 is between 6-7 out of 10. I now have this feeling that while they still have plenty to give and show, I'm not sure if that is sufficient to get us more wins which is what we desperately have been after. More wins. Those three are not real world beaters in this day and with age now against them, they are now showing signs of slowing down more (Cook has been good so far this year, Gutho as well, but Holmes doesn't appear to be fully fit and his past injuries have hit him mentally in my view) and in the case of Holmes, more susceptible to injuries.

However, in saying all of this, these three guys are helping the younger ones along their journey in the NRL which will benefit us in the end.

All 3 of those are over 30 and on a million or almost a million dollars a year. They weren't the marquee players Flanno claims to have attracted to the club.

 

[Ryan]

David wether it's injury or just getting older , for me Holmes has been poor not a match winner like he was ...... Anyway just my 2 bobs worth .......

Holmes was probably our best until he got injured last year. Neck and neck with Stewart and Couchman. But he started this year with a shocker.

 

[TheRev]

The 6 man bench is interesting, have been thinking recently, having lawrie on there is actually a no brainer. He is shit, wont be re-signed, and so if he sits there for 5 games with no minutes, who cares, we dont need to develop him anyway.

Yep, same with Feagai and Sloan, Sloan in particular is perfect if you want to give TPH time at fullback (rly keen to see how he handles the spot in 2026)... we may be able to just back them up in games like this weekend where cup is at the same ground.

Rufus posted some Lawrie stats from last week, just checking.. 168m from 20 runs, 36 tackles @90% efficiency.. thats a pretty useful cog in the cup team (granted hes using up a top30 spot).. he doesnt need to play cup every week though... Webster and Hutchos stats were excellent also.. LPT had less metres but nearly 10m per run and barely a missed tackle.. the whole pack was rly good.

 

[RufusRex]

Stats stats and more BS stats
Geared Surton 33%
Chris Sutton 32%
Chris James 33%
Adam Gee 32%

All over 15 games, maybe it's not the ref maybe it us.

I think you need to look at percentage under a ref vs the clubs percentage win rate for the time that ref has been active ...

Gerard Sutton
our % under him is 33% .. our percentage over the time he has been reffing is 45%
that is a 12% difference in games he refs vs our baseline ... Granted the games he is given could influence that but we are the biggest difference for teams he refs.

Chris Sutton
32 vs 41 - 9% worse .... you dont want him playing the bunnies who perform 20% better with him as ref

Adam Gee
33 vs 42 so 9% worse under him

You can also see our % win rate over ref careers come down with the newer refs - so going back a lot of years to when we may actually win more than half the games in the season figures in some of the refs overall stats.


Refs we like:
Ashley Klein - we are 5% up on games he refs
Peter Gough - up 13%
Ziggy up 10% but small sample size

 

[Frank Facer]

All 3 of those are over 30 and on a million or almost a million dollars a year. They weren't the marquee players Flanno claims to have attracted to the club.

Yeah, Gutho is said to be on 900K a year, which is overs and Holmes reported to be on 850K a year, which is pretty high, but he is good and was a valuable signing. If we didn't have Gutho and Holmes, we would look much weaker, with Sloan at fullback and whoever at centre. With the addition of Gutho, Holmes and Cook they provided much needed leadership to our squad. Without them, who would be providing any leadership to our squad? We had Hunt as our captain, but he wasn't a leader. He was toxic and wanted out before Flanno got here. Lomax also wanted out before Flanno got here too. Flanno didn't just recruit on field players, he recruited much needed leadership. Pretty smart in my opinion, even if they were stop gap measures. I will say, I wasn't too keen on Gutho, but from a leadership point of view and someone instead of Sloan, it was a good idea.

As for Cook, he isn't on anywhere near 1 mil a year. Here is a copy and paste when I asked how much Cook is on a year at St George

Damien Cook is signed with the St. George Illawarra Dragons on a two-year contract that began in 2025, with his salary reported to be $500,000 per season.

• The contract is worth $1 million over two years.
• South Sydney Rabbitohs contributed to his salary in 2025, reportedly covering $50,000, while the Dragons will cover the full amount in 2026.
• Cook's move marks a homecoming, as he made his NRL debut for the Dragons in 2013 and was born and raised in Helensburgh, Illawarra.

He remains under contract with the Dragons until at least the end of the 2026 season.

 

[Frank Facer]

David wether it's injury or just getting older , for me Holmes has been poor not a match winner like he was ...... Anyway just my 2 bobs worth .......

I thought Holmes looked very good last year.

 

[Frank Facer]

I think you need to look at percentage under a ref vs the clubs percentage win rate for the time that ref has been active ...

Gerard Sutton
our % under him is 33% .. our percentage over the time he has been reffing is 45%
that is a 12% difference in games he refs vs our baseline ... Granted the games he is given could influence that but we are the biggest difference for teams he refs.

Chris Sutton
32 vs 41 - 9% worse .... you dont want him playing the bunnies who perform 20% better with him as ref

Adam Gee
33 vs 42 so 9% worse under him

You can also see our % win rate over ref careers come down with the newer refs - so going back a lot of years to when we may actually win more than half the games in the season figures in some of the refs overall stats.


Refs we like:
Ashley Klein - we are 5% up on games he refs
Peter Gough - up 13%
Ziggy up 10% but small sample size

I liked Gough, even before reading your post. He was the only one I could think of who I liked. I don't know who Ziggy is.

 

[Ryan]

Yeah, Gutho is said to be on 900K a year, which is overs and Holmes reported to be on 850K a year, which is pretty high, but he is good and was a valuable signing. If we didn't have Gutho and Holmes, we would look much weaker, with Sloan at fullback and whoever at centre. With the addition of Gutho, Holmes and Cook they provided much needed leadership to our squad. Without them, who would be providing any leadership to our squad? We had Hunt as our captain, but he wasn't a leader. He was toxic and wanted out before Flanno got here. Lomax also wanted out before Flanno got here too. Flanno didn't just recruit on field players, he recruited much needed leadership. Pretty smart in my opinion, even if they were stop gap measures. I will say, I wasn't too keen on Gutho, but from a leadership point of view and someone instead of Sloan, it was a good idea.

As for Cook, he isn't on anywhere near 1 mil a year. Here is a copy and paste when I asked how much Cook is on a year at St George

Damien Cook is signed with the St. George Illawarra Dragons on a two-year contract that began in 2025, with his salary reported to be $500,000 per season.

• The contract is worth $1 million over two years.
• South Sydney Rabbitohs contributed to his salary in 2025, reportedly covering $50,000, while the Dragons will cover the full amount in 2026.
• Cook's move marks a homecoming, as he made his NRL debut for the Dragons in 2013 and was born and raised in Helensburgh, Illawarra.

He remains under contract with the Dragons until at least the end of the 2026 season.

Where is Holmes reported to be on 850K? I've seen he is reported to be on 1 mil.

 

[TheRev]

Val was on a silly contract post-NFL, 1.15m the final year supposedly, which the Cows paid a big chunk of.. so in the end our 3yr deal was approx 850k on average is the number quoted... but this quote from Buzz below (Flannos mate) was probably the most details I could find, essentially its more like 750k for his final 2 years.

“That’s a pretty strange move in that Val will be guaranteed what $800,000 at the Cowboys next year or whatever,” Rothfield said. “If he goes to St George Illawarra, he gets three years of (his salary) so he’s thinking about his family.” Holmes' deal with the Dragons will see him pocket $750,000 per season, which is less than he's on at the Cowboys but crucially sees him secure another two years on big money.

Gutho is also on less in his final year(s) also.. Cook is on roughly 500k but would be less again if he stays on... we have a tonne of cash.. thats not our problem right now.. the tele is reporting us and the broncos r favourites of the 4 clubs competing for Barnett also.. not sure how realistic that is.. but would be a hell of a pack..

I am a little bit nervous about positions for next year and beyond mind you.. guys like Fale and Tu and not sure on Muhleissen, they are taking up potentially very valuable Top30 spots..... and we need some backline upgrades (fullback and winger at a minimum) and we need a hooker to replace cook and to be pushing up.. and what happens if a Coutts or someone comes on hard.... things are tricky to manage.