Recruitment & Retention 2027

[jodragon40]

I think a lot of people are frothing about the Drinkwater signing Eric. His attacking play can be quite seductive to watch. However, if you broaden your focus a bit, it might not be all sunshine and lollipops. There are reasons why he has never been selected for rep footy, and reasons why the Cowboys are happy to let him go.

His tackle efficiency percentage is in the low 70s this season. Among the worst of all fullbacks in the comp. He also has 29 errors which is second worst of all fullbacks in the comp behind only Kini with 30. He also has 35 missed tackles so far this season - worst of all fullbacks by a long margin.

Drinkwater will also be the same age in his first season with us as Gutho was when we signed him. I have to wonder what impact Father Time might have on his attacking abilities. I reckon we might get one good season from him followed by a Gutho-esque decline. There is a genuine risk that by 2028 we are looking back at the Drinkwater signing wondering how in the world we could possibly have agreed to that.

What you have said is quite true. However in saying that some of those statistics can be misleading. You must also factor in player involvement percentages.

If a player, in any position lacks genuine minutes in being involved then the statistics can be misconstrued. The more involvement, the more chances of errors, alternatively the more chances of creating match changing or winning performances.

 

[Dragon David]

What you have said is quite true. However in saying that some of those statistics can be misleading. You must also factor in player involvement percentages.

If a player, in any position lacks genuine minutes in being involved then the statistics can be misconstrued. The more involvement, the more chances of errors, alternatively the more chances of creating match changing or winning performances.

That's true Joe. The more a player gets involved in any plays whether in attack or defence, there is the chance of more strike in attack but also more mistakes. I'd rather see Scottie D get involved for the full 80 minutes because he will be one of the bright lights for us from next year. All fingers crossed that he comes over to us fully intact and free of injury not like Holmes who had his leg broken months before coming to us and most likely still getting over the break.

 

[RedV01]

There are reasons why he has never been selected for rep footy, and reasons why the Cowboys are happy to let him go.

One very big reason is that he's been going head to head with dudes like Tom Turbo, Tedesco and Edwards for this entire career.

He's not one of the best fullbacks but he's one of the best attacking players in the competition.

 

[jodragon40]

That's true Joe. The more a player gets involved in any plays whether in attack or defence, there is the chance of more strike in attack but also more mistakes. I'd rather see Scottie D get involved for the full 80 minutes because he will be one of the bright lights for us from next year. All fingers crossed that he comes over to us fully intact and free of injury not like Holmes who had his leg broken months before coming to us and most likely still getting over the break.

Only speaking from my own experiences. You can have a player appear to be statistically very good but with little involvement. As I said before you need to be able to drill into statistics and not view them on face value

 

[Dragon David]

Signing in 2027 involving the Eels. Most have predicted this.

BREAKING: Luai locks in Eels move as big cost of bold call move revealed

BREAKING: Luai locks in new club as big cost of bold Tigers move revealed

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[redv13]

Signing in 2027 involving the Eels. Most have predicted this.

BREAKING: Luai locks in Eels move as big cost of bold call move revealed

BREAKING: Luai locks in new club as big cost of bold Tigers move revealed

www.foxsports.com.au

Happy that Saints weren’t involved in this mess.

 

[Dragon David]

Happy that Saints weren’t involved in this mess.

Me too!

 

[Inverted63]

What you have said is quite true. However in saying that some of those statistics can be misleading. You must also factor in player involvement percentages.

If a player, in any position lacks genuine minutes in being involved then the statistics can be misconstrued. The more involvement, the more chances of errors, alternatively the more chances of creating match changing or winning performances.

I understand what you are suggesting Jo. If it were just errors, Drinkwater could reduce his count by just avoiding possession - less ball, less errors. But stats like tackle efficiency can’t be fudged like that - Drinkwater misses almost 30% of his tackles regardless of how many he attempts.

This is consistent with his all time tackle stats across all seasons which sits at approximately 26.5%, which translates to a career tackle efficiency of roughly 73.5%

His total tackle count for 2026 is among the highest of all fullbacks though - I’ll give you that. Drinkwater so far this year has missed 35 of 137 tackles. But even Gutho is better than that with only 16 missed from a comparable 138 tackles.

But he is much better in attack. This year.

 

[Mug Fan]

But stats like tackle efficiency can’t be fudged like that - Drinkwater misses almost 30% of his tackles regardless of how many he attempts.

This is consistent with his all time tackle stats across all seasons which sits at approximately 26.5%, which translates to a career tackle efficiency of roughly 73.5%

His total tackle count for 2026 is among the highest of all fullbacks though - I’ll give you that. Drinkwater so far this year has missed 35 of 137 tackles. But even Gutho is better than that with only 16 missed from a comparable 138 tackles

Yes they can Gutho could of missed 16 tackles where he was too slow to be in position to make a tackle.

Walsh tackle effective is 75% Ponga even lower.
Walsh has had 24 errors in 11 games compared to Drinkwater 29 in 17.

Stats can be totally misleading when not viewed in the concept of the game.

 

[TheRev]

Missed Tackles is the stat that has always driven me bonkers.. Dufty is the only example you need.. he would always 'supervise' tries being scored from a safe distance, so it never went against his stats.. yet a desperate fullback who dives full length for a 5% chance of stopping a try and risk of injury.. cops a missed tackle for that effort... the faster the player in general... the more chance they can get into a position to make a low % play.

I assume also when Dufty would go for an intercept when a 2on1 was coming at him.. that also avoided the missed tackle stat... tbf he looks a different player this year, but that took a long time to drum into him.

 

[RedV01]

Missed Tackles is the stat that has always driven me bonkers.. Dufty is the only example you need.. he would always 'supervise' tries being scored from a safe distance, so it never went against his stats.. yet a desperate fullback who dives full length for a 5% chance of stopping a try and risk of injury.. cops a missed tackle for that effort... the faster the player in general... the more chance they can get into a position to make a low % play.

I assume also when Dufty would go for an intercept when a 2on1 was coming at him.. that also avoided the missed tackle stat... tbf he looks a different player this year, but that took a long time to drum into him.

Try assists are the worst. In previous years if JDB barged over one, stepped past another, palmed off a third then got an offload away to KF when the 4th, 5th and 6th set upon him and KF in turn immediately passed it to Suli who scored untouched, KF would have gotten the try assist.

 

[Inverted63]

Yes they can Gutho could of missed 16 tackles where he was too slow to be in position to make a tackle.

Walsh tackle effective is 75% Ponga even lower.
Walsh has had 24 errors in 11 games compared to Drinkwater 29 in 17.

Stats can be totally misleading when not viewed in the concept of the game.

I agree with your last point Mug. Stats can be misleading when provided out of context.

Using your example, it’s not a question of whether or not Gutho was fast enough to get into position to even make a tackle. If it were, how many tackles did Drinkwater also not get into position fast enough to make / miss? The stats I provided are a direct comparison which shows that of all tackles attempted, Drinkwater misses a higher percentage than Gutho.

Not sure where you are getting Walsh’s tackle effectiveness figures from - I have him at 88.5% missing only 7 from 61. The error count is right though, but 2026 has been his worst ever season - 2.18 errors per game compared with only 1.7 per game last year and 1.88 per game across his whole career.

As for Ponga - yes, his tackle effectiveness is lower this year than Drinkwater’s. However, he is coming back from a severe high-grade hamstring strain in Round 2 against Manly that sidelined him for two months, followed by a shoulder injury against the Storm in June.

Do you think any of the statistics that I provided for Drinkwater are misleading or lack context?

 

[jodragon40]

Yes they can Gutho could of missed 16 tackles where he was too slow to be in position to make a tackle.

Walsh tackle effective is 75% Ponga even lower.
Walsh has had 24 errors in 11 games compared to Drinkwater 29 in 17.

Stats can be totally misleading when not viewed in the concept of the game.

Absolutely correct

 

[Eric]

I agree with your last point Mug. Stats can be misleading when provided out of context.

Using your example, it’s not a question of whether or not Gutho was fast enough to get into position to even make a tackle. If it were, how many tackles did Drinkwater also not get into position fast enough to make / miss? The stats I provided are a direct comparison which shows that of all tackles attempted Drinkwater misses a higher percentage than Gutho.

Not sure where you are getting Walsh’s tackle effectiveness figures from - I have him at 88.5% missing only 7 from 61. The error count is right though, but 2026 has been his worst ever season - 2.18 errors per game compared with only 1.7 per game last year and 1.88 per game across his whole career.

As for Ponga - yes, his tackle effectiveness is lower this year than Drinkwater’s. However, he is coming back from a severe high-grade hamstring strain in Round 2 against Manly that sidelined him for two months, followed by a shoulder injury against the Storm in June.

Do you think any of the statistics that I provided for Drinkwater are misleading or lack context?

Stats can be misleading and many ways to interpret them but personally I'm more enthuiastic about KK and Drinkwater than........ any recruits ever. If we can get Heidke and Burton firing in the centres, Metcalf running the show from halfback pending Reeds arrival, suddenly it's a backline almost as good as the pack. In my view anyway.

Can also do worse for a backup hooker than Connor M running around tackling everything that moves not in a Dragons jersey for 20min a game for a year or two until a more permanent solution can be found. I'm optimistic about next year. To cut a long story short.

 

[Dragon David]

Stats can be misleading and many ways to interpret them but personally I'm more enthuiastic about KK and Drinkwater than........ any recruits ever. If we can get Heidke and Burton firing in the centres, Metcalf running the show from halfback pending Reeds arrival, suddenly it's a backline almost as good as the pack. In my view anyway.

Can also do worse for a backup hooker than Connor M running around tackling everything that moves not in a Dragons jersey for 20min a game for a year or two until a more permanent solution can be found. I'm optimistic about next year. To cut a long story short.

Agree with what you say Eric. These new signings plus hopefully a couple more (strong centre and another formidable prop) for 2027 and we will be hard to beat no matter who our coach will be.

 

[Inverted63]

I bet you guys were optimistic when we signed Gutho, Holmes and Cook too, weren’t you?

 

[Dave03]

Cook has been good, Holmes indifferent due to form/injury, Gutho was good until age caught up.

Across the league, Teddy still performing and he's 30+, Gagai too, DWZ too.

Some good, some bad but we're trying to improve the list which is the main aim. Drinky will turn 30 halfway through next season, metcalf is 27, sami is 28 & KK is 28. I doubt anyone is under the expectation that Drinkwater is a defensive fullback or will save tries. We've got him for his attack & creativity.

I'd rather look at confirmed signings with optimism but each to their own.

 

[RufusRex]

without knowing actual numbers (just guessing) it feels like we have close to $2M tied up in Kyle/Suli/Gutho for next season.
We currently sit at 26 for the squad in 2027.

If we have about 200k left for each of the last 4 spots that will not get us great talent. However if we could shift that trio on we suddenly have an average of $400,000 for each of those last 7 spots which is a good amount of cash to buy in much needed mid tier talent to complete our roster .. Especially in terms of fullback cover/three quarters and edge forward depth.

Our ability to complete next years roster has been sabotaged by some horrible deals we need to get rid of.

 

[AyiosYiorgos]

without knowing actual numbers (just guessing) it feels like we have close to $2M tied up in Kyle/Suli/Gutho for next season.
We currently sit at 26 for the squad in 2027.

If we have about 200k left for each of the last 4 spots that will not get us great talent. However if we could shift that trio on we suddenly have an average of $400,000 for each of those last 7 spots which is a good amount of cash to buy in much needed mid tier talent to complete our roster .. Especially in terms of fullback cover/three quarters and edge forward depth.

Our ability to complete next years roster has been sabotaged by some horrible deals we need to get rid of.

At best Suli could get an NRL deal with us probably putting in a bit of cash, the other two would need to be moved to SL or medically retire Gutho, if we could somehow sneak that in.. WT supposedly putting in $500k for Luia to go to the Eels, so we may have to fork out 30-50% for Suli..

 

[RufusRex]

yep ... fucked deals really
With suli you could part pay for him and promote another kid into the 30 or similar and still have cash for the last 6 spots.